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Tropical Depression FIVE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-07-12 04:34:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120234 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 Tropical Depression Five-E is gradually becoming better organized. A broad convective band is present in the northeastern semicircle, with the coldest cloud tops currently in a cluster to the north of the center. Satellite intensity estimates are 30 kt from TAFB and 25 kt from SAB, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The cirrus outflow is good in all directions except the southeast. The initial motion is 300/8. The consensus of the track guidance is that the cyclone should move generally west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico for the next 48 hours or so, steered by a deep-layer ridge over northern Mexico and the southern United States. The guidance becomes divergent after that time due to the uncertainty in the evolution of a deep-layer trough over the northeastern Pacific and the western United States. The GFS and ECMWF suggest that a ridge will build westward from Mexico between the cyclone and the trough, and they thus forecast the depression to turn westward. The UKMET, GFDL, and GFDN forecast the trough to prevent the ridge from building, and thus show a northwestward motion. The new track forecast follows the GFS/ECMWF scenario in showing a westward turn, and it lies a little to the south of the previous track. The depression is expected to remain in a moist environment and over warm sea surface temperatures for the next several days. The vertical wind shear is currently light, and the environment is favorable for rapid intensification during the next 24-36 hours as shown by the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index. However, the cyclone currently lacks a well-defined inner core, and the GFS and ECMWF suggest that a period of moderate northerly shear may affect the cyclone around 48 hours. These factors could slow or stop any rapid intensification. Overall, the intensity guidance is stronger than that of the previous advisory, with the SHIPS model forecasting an intensity near 100 kt by 120 hours. The intensity forecast calls for the same steady strengthening through 48 hours as the previous forecast, then shows slightly higher intensities for 72-120 hours. The forecast is in best agreement with the intensity consensus through 72 hours, and is near the SHIPS model after that. Although the current track forecast remains offshore of Mexico, a small deviation to the north of the projected track could require the issuance of tropical storm watches or warnings for a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 13.8N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 14.6N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 15.8N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 16.6N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 17.3N 106.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 18.5N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 19.5N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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