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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-08-26 22:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 262033 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142016 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016 Visible satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure in the western part of the eastern North Pacific basin has developed a well-defined center and has sufficient convective organization to be considered a tropical cyclone. The convective pattern displays a CDO feature near and to the west of the estimated center location due to some east-northeasterly shear, and the initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest SAB Dvorak estimate. The cyclone will be moving over SSTs above 27C and in a low-to-moderate easterly shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days. This should allow for steady intensification, and the NHC forecast shows the cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 3 days. Later in the forecast period the SSTs cool and the mid-level atmosphere dries out, which should result in some weakening. The official intensity forecast is close to or a little below the IVCN consensus through the period. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 295/10 given the recent formation of the center. The depression is currently situated on the southwestern flank of a subtropical ridge centered near 125W. A west-northwestward motion is expected during the first couple of days of the forecast period as the cyclone moves around the edge of the ridge. Late in the period a new ridge builds north of the Hawaiian Islands, which should result in a westward motion at days 3 through 5. The track model guidance is in generally good agreement on this scenario, however there is some spread, with the GFS slower and farther south by day 5, while the ECMWF is faster and farther north. The NHC forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope and is a little south of the TVCN consensus and is north of a blend of the GFS and ECMWF. It is too early to determine what, if any, impacts this cyclone could have on the Hawaiian Islands near the end of the forecast period. It is important to remind users that the average 5-day track forecast error for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones is about 170 miles. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 13.3N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 14.2N 137.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 15.2N 138.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 15.8N 140.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 16.6N 141.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 18.0N 144.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 19.0N 148.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 31/1800Z 19.0N 152.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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