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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 10
2017-09-14 04:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 140233 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 During the afternoon hours, the mid-level center of the depression became completely removed from the now exposed low-level center. A small tight swirl embedded within a broader, elongated, low-level circulation is still evident, but deep convection is limited to a band displaced about 60 n mi to the west of the center. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data. Given the poor convective structure of the depression, little change in intensity is expected for the next day or so. After that time, the GFS and ECMWF both forecast that the upper-level wind pattern will become more favorable for intensification. Once that happens, most of the intensity guidance forecasts that the cyclone will begin to steadily strengthen, especially after about 72 h. My forecast is a little higher than the previous NHC forecast at 96 h and 120 h, and is very close to IVCN. The depression has been nearly stationary for the past 6 hours. The initial motion estimate assumes at least some movement, and is a rather uncertain 270/02 kt. The global models agree that the cyclone will remain trapped in weak steering flow throughout the forecast period, but vary greatly on how much it will move. A complicating factor is that the GFS suggests that the low-level center may reform underneath the mid-level center to the south. My forecast assumes that the current center of circulation will persist, but a larger change may be required if such a reformation occurs. The new official track forecast is slower than the previous one for the first 36 h, but is close after that, and still shows little movement throughout the forecast period. The track forecast is based heavily on the ECMWF model, especially beyond day 2. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 15.1N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 15.2N 122.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 15.4N 123.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 15.5N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 15.3N 124.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 15.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 16.0N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 16.5N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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