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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 13
2017-09-14 22:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 142035 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Visible satellite imagery shows that the depression is still poorly organized. The circulation is highly elongated, and the associated deep convection is not well organized due to moderate easterly shear. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt, and leans toward the lower Dvorak T-numbers provided by SAB given the poor satellite presentation. The vertical shear over the system is expected to decrease within the next day or two, which should provide an opportunity for the system to strengthen. Both the statistical guidance and the global models predict modest intensification over the weekend, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm in 36 to 48 h, with some additional strengthening through day 3. After that time, drier air and increasing shear is likely to cause some weakening by the end of the forecast period. The initial motion estimate is 280/4 kt. The depression is forecast to move generally westward at a slower-than-climatological rate during the next couple of days while it is situated within an area of weak steering flow. Later in the period, a mid-level trough that is expected to deepen well southwest of southern California should steer the depression slowly poleward by early next week. However, there is increasing spread in the track guidance at days 4 and 5, and there is lower confidence in the track forecast at those times. The NHC track forecast is once again in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 15.6N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 15.9N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 15.9N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 15.7N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 15.6N 125.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 16.0N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 16.7N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 17.3N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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