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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-09-15 04:49:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150249 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Convection has increased a little near the alleged center of the depression, but a low-level center is difficult to identify in recent AMSR and SSMIS imagery. A larger SW-NE elongated circulation is still present, however, and it is possible that the center is reforming closer to the convection within the larger cyclonic envelope. In an absence of any other data to use, the intensity has been held at 30 kt since Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are unchanged from 6 hours ago. Assuming the center will soon consolidate under the convection, some intensification over the forecast period is still expected since the shear is low and SSTs are fairly warm. By the end of the forecast period, drier air is expected to inhibit convection, which should cause the cyclone to begin to weaken. No significant changes have been made to the intensity forecast, which is based on a selective ensemble of DSHP, LGEM, and HWRF. Given the poor definition of the low-level circulation, the initial motion estimate is highly uncertain, but estimated to be 285/5 kt. The cyclone is still embedded within weak steering flow, and all of the global models forecast that it will remain so for the entirety of the forecast period. While the spread is fairly high, in general the models still forecast that a deep-layer trough well to the north of the depression should allow for a slow northward drift after 48 h. The NHC track forecast remains close to the corrected consensus HCCA, and is fairly close to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 15.8N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 15.9N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 15.8N 125.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 15.7N 125.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 15.9N 125.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 16.5N 125.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 17.5N 125.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 17.7N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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