je.st
news
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 16
2017-09-15 16:40:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151440 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 The depression has not really improved in organization, and there still appears to be east-northeasterly shear displacing the deep convection to the southwest of the center. The intensity remains 30 kt based on a blend of TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates. The shear over the depression is expected to decrease soon, reaching a minimum in about 24-36 hours. Therefore, some strengthening appears reasonable, and the depression may finally be able to become a tropical storm on Saturday. An increase in easterly shear should lead to weakening by the end of the forecast period. Some of the models contained in ICON seem overblown on the cyclone's intensification, so the NHC forecast is lower than the intensity consensus and lies closest to the SHIPS model and HCCA. The subtropical ridge to the north of the depression is expected to push the cyclone slowly west-southwestward through 24 hours. After that time, a break in the ridge will develop, which should cause the cyclone to drift northward through days 3 and 4. A re-establishment of the ridge by day 5 should impart a faster westward motion by the end of the forecast period. Based on the latest model guidance, the new NHC forecast is a little west of and faster than the previous official forecast, especially on days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 15.9N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 15.7N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 15.5N 125.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 15.6N 126.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 16.1N 126.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 18.2N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 18.0N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||