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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 17
2017-09-15 22:39:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 152039 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 A cluster of deep convection, albeit small, has become more concentrated near the center of circulation, indicating that the shear has diminished. However, a recent ASCAT pass indicated that the maximum winds remain 30 kt. The lower shear and warm sea surface temperatures should allow the depression to gradually strengthen over the next couple of days, although since dry air has been ingested into the circulation, that intensification will probably be slow. The new NHC forecast shows a slightly lower peak intensity compared to the previous forecast, following the latest model trends. Weakening is likely by days 4 and 5, and the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low at the end of the forecast period due to stronger shear and marginal sea surface temperatures. The depression has slowed down and is moving westward, or 270/3 kt. The subtropical ridge is expected to push the depression west- southwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours, but after that time, a break in the ridge will allow the cyclone to turn northward through day 3. A re-establishment of the ridge should cause the cyclone to turn back toward the west on days 4 and 5. There were no significant changes required on this forecast package, and the NHC forecast generally lies close to the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 16.0N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.8N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 15.8N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 16.0N 126.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 16.5N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 17.7N 126.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 18.4N 126.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 18.1N 129.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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