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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 18
2017-09-16 04:42:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160242 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 For the past several days, convection has developed repeatedly near the center of the depression, only to dissipate a few hours later. This trend has continued today, and the depression is currently at a convective minimum. The intensity has been held at 30 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data. Despite the lack of intensification so far, most of the guidance continues to show that the depression will become a tropical storm sometime in the next couple of days. Only the LGEM keeps the system weak throughout the forecast, though so far that has been a good forecast. For now, my forecast continues to follow the intensity consensus and shows very gradual weakening over the next couple of days. Given the low shear and moderate SSTs, it would still be a little surprising if the depression never strengthens. The depression continues to slow down, and is now drifting westward at about 2 kt. Very little change has been made to the track forecast, and the global models continue to show little motion for the next day or so while the cyclone remains trapped in weak steering flow. After about 24 h, a slow turn toward the north is expected in response to a mid-level trough located well to the north. A turn back toward the west should occur once the subtropical ridge becomes re-established around day 4. The NHC forecast remains near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 16.0N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 15.9N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 15.9N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 16.3N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 16.8N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 18.0N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 18.5N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 18.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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