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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-09-12 04:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120231 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2017 The tropical depression remains sheared, and convection has decreased since this afternoon. The initial intensity has been held at 25 kt based on a blend of the most recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications. Little change in intensity is forecast for the next few days. The GFS and ECMWF both indicate that the strong easterly wind shear will not decrease for the next 36 to 48 hours, which should prevent significant strengthening and could cause the cyclone to quickly become a remnant low. After that time, the forecast becomes more complicated since the depression, or its remnants, may interact with another surface low pressure system forecast to develop over the open East Pacific. As a result of this proximity, some of the model trackers depict strengthening near the end of the forecast period. Because most of the models depict the other developing low as the dominant system in any potential interaction, I am electing to discount that possibility for now. The official forecast instead shows the depression becoming a remnant low within 72 hours, and dissipating entirely sometime after 96 h, similar to the previous advisory. The depression is moving just south of due west at 13 kt. The low- to mid-level components of a ridge located to the north should keep the cyclone moving generally westward through the forecast period, until it dissipates. The ECMWF solution seems to be the most reasonable of the dynamical models because it keeps the depression separate from any other developing low pressure systems. The new official forecast track is therefore most similar to the ECMWF, and is not significantly different from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 16.2N 113.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 15.9N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 15.4N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 15.2N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 15.3N 120.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 16.0N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0000Z 16.5N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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