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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 20
2017-09-16 16:39:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 161439 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Deep convection associated with the depression has increased this morning, with the low-level center estimated to be near the middle of the thunderstorm activity. Based on the improved organization of the cloud pattern since the time of the ASCAT pass overnight, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 30 kt. The depression is over relatively warm SSTs and embedded in fairly low wind shear conditions, but it also is situated in a dry atmospheric environment. These mixed factors should cause the system to remain relatively steady state for the next few days, though it is possible that the cyclone becomes a tropical storm during that time frame. Beyond a few days, the wind shear is expected to increase and SSTs lower along the expected path. These more hostile conditions should cause the depression to weaken and become a remnant low in 4 to 5 days. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and in line with the bulk of the guidance. The tropical cyclone continues to drift westward in weak steering currents. The models are in agreement that the depression should turn slowly northward during the next day or two when it moves along the west side of a weak mid-level ridge. Once the system loses convection, a turn back toward the west is predicted. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 15.8N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 15.9N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 16.3N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 16.9N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 17.6N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 18.2N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 17.8N 129.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 16.7N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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