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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-09-12 16:45:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 121445 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 The first-light visible imagery from the GOES-16 satellite depicts a tightly wound low-level center with all of the deep convection west of the center. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt - just a bit higher than previously, based upon the TAFB Dvorak classification. The dislocation of the deep convection is symptomatic of the moderate to strong vertical shear, forced by the upper-level ridge to the north of the depression. Moderate shear should continue for the next couple of days, limiting the opportunity for the system to intensify. In about two days, the depression may begin interacting with a developing tropical cyclone to its east. One plausible scenario is for the system to be absorbed by the new tropical cyclone. The official forecast instead shows a gradual weakening as the depression tracks slowly westward, due to an increasingly hostile upper-level environment. The intensity forecast is a little above the previous one in respect to the slightly improved structure shown this morning and is closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach. The depression is moving toward the west at 13 kt, primarily being steered by the deep-layer ridge to its north. The depression should continue moving in this general direction at a slower rate of forward speed during the next couple of days. At days three and four, the low-level steering flow should weaken due to the developing tropical cyclone to the depression's east. The official track forecast is based upon the model consensus minus the UKMET (whose tracker latches on to the developing tropical cyclone instead) and is east of that from the previous advisory. This track prediction has higher uncertainty than usual because of the divergence of plausible outcomes for the depression. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 15.6N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 15.2N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 14.9N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 14.9N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 15.1N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 15.6N 122.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1200Z 15.7N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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