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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-09-13 04:42:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 130242 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Although deep convection associated with the depression has increased since the previous advisory, it remains displaced to the west of the center due to about 15 kt of easterly wind shear. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with a blend of the Dvorak classifications from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. The current wind shear affecting the depression is expected to persist overnight, so little change in intensity is forecast during that time. Thereafter, the global models show the upper-level wind pattern becoming a little less hostile over the depression. This slightly more favorable atmospheric environment combined with warm SSTs should allow the system to strengthen a little. Earlier model solutions showed the depression interacting with a developing system to its east, but the guidance is showing less interaction now. Based on the model trends and the expected environmental conditions, the NHC intensity forecast no longer calls for the depression to become a remnant low, and instead predicts the system to remain a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. This forecast is in good agreement with the latest models, except at day 5 where it lies on the low side of the guidance. Satellite fixes suggest that the depression is moving just south of due west, 265 degrees, at 11 kt. A continued west motion, but at a much slower pace is expected during the next few days as a mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone weakens. By the end of the forecast period, the system could become stationary when it is expected to be embedded in very weak steering currents. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one to come in line with the latest model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 15.4N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 15.2N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 15.3N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 15.5N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 15.6N 123.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 15.5N 125.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 15.5N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 15.6N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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