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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-09-13 22:34:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 132033 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 The cloud pattern is still disorganized and the circulation appears to be somewhat elongated. Most of the deep convection is located to the southwest of the center due to some moderate northeasterly shear. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed and consequently, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt. There are no obvious reasons why the cyclone will not intensify a little. The shear is forecast to decrease in a couple of days and the ocean is warm. On this basis, little change is anticipated during the next 12 hours or so and some slight strengthening is forecast thereafter, and the depression is still expected to become a tropical storm. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 275 degrees at 6 kt. The depression is embedded within light easterly flow south of a subtropical ridge. Global models indicate that the steering currents will weaken even more, and this flow will only produce a very slow westward motion through the next 3 days. After that time, the cyclone will probably begin to meander as the steering flow collapses completely. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 15.1N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 15.2N 122.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 15.4N 123.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 15.5N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 15.5N 125.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 15.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 15.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 16.0N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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