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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-10-07 10:51:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 070850 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 86.9W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 86.9W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 87.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.4N 86.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.8N 86.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.3N 86.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.9N 87.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.6N 87.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 32.0N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 37.0N 76.0W...NEAR THE VA COAST MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 86.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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