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Tropical Depression Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 41
2017-08-01 16:40:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 01 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 011440 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Irwin Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 01 2017 Irwin basically consists of a tight swirl of low clouds devoid of deep convection. Dvorak numbers have continued to decrease, and assuming that winds have diminished since the last ASCAT pass about 8 hours ago, the initial intensity is set at 30 kt. The cyclone is already moving over cold waters of about 22 deg C. On this basis, weakening should continue, and Irwin is anticipated to become a remnant low this afternoon. Irwin is moving toward the north-northwest or 335 degrees at 9 kt. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected today as the cyclone becomes a shallow system steered by the low-level flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 25.9N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 27.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/1200Z 28.0N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/0000Z 29.0N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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