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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 12
2024-09-30 10:36:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 300836 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 49.7W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 49.7W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 49.6W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.8N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.6N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.7N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 25.8N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 49.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 18
2024-09-30 10:35:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 300835 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024 Isaac continues to show signs of transitioning into an extratropical cyclone. The central convection has mostly dissipated, and the system is taking on more of a frontal appearance, with a zonally-oriented cloud and rain shield over the cyclone's northern semicircle. The current intensity is kept at 55 kt in accordance with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB, although this is somewhat uncertain since Isaac no longer appears to be a true tropical cyclone. The cyclone continues to move east-northeastward or at about 060/13 kt within a southern branch of the mid-latitude westerlies. Isaac is expected to turn toward the northeast during the next couple of days as it approaches a shortwave ridge just west of the British Isles. The official track forecast has been nudged only slightly eastward in the 2-3 day time frame, towards the latest corrected dynamical model consensus. Isaac is moving over cool waters and should complete its extratropical transition today. The global models suggest that the system will gradually weaken during the next few days as it becomes absorbed within a larger low over the North Atlantic. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 44.7N 31.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 45.8N 28.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/0600Z 47.4N 25.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 01/1800Z 49.4N 23.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/0600Z 51.3N 22.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 02/1800Z 53.0N 21.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/0600Z 54.5N 20.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2024-09-30 10:35:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 300835 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102024 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category: Transportation and Logistics