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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 18
2024-09-30 10:35:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 300835 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024 Isaac continues to show signs of transitioning into an extratropical cyclone. The central convection has mostly dissipated, and the system is taking on more of a frontal appearance, with a zonally-oriented cloud and rain shield over the cyclone's northern semicircle. The current intensity is kept at 55 kt in accordance with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB, although this is somewhat uncertain since Isaac no longer appears to be a true tropical cyclone. The cyclone continues to move east-northeastward or at about 060/13 kt within a southern branch of the mid-latitude westerlies. Isaac is expected to turn toward the northeast during the next couple of days as it approaches a shortwave ridge just west of the British Isles. The official track forecast has been nudged only slightly eastward in the 2-3 day time frame, towards the latest corrected dynamical model consensus. Isaac is moving over cool waters and should complete its extratropical transition today. The global models suggest that the system will gradually weaken during the next few days as it becomes absorbed within a larger low over the North Atlantic. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 44.7N 31.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 45.8N 28.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/0600Z 47.4N 25.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 01/1800Z 49.4N 23.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/0600Z 51.3N 22.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 02/1800Z 53.0N 21.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/0600Z 54.5N 20.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT5/AL102024)
2024-09-30 10:35:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM GMT Mon Sep 30 the center of Isaac was located near 44.7, -31.3 with movement ENE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 18
2024-09-30 10:35:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 300835 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102024 900 AM GMT Mon Sep 30 2024 ...ISAAC EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.7N 31.3W ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM NNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 44.7 North, longitude 31.3 West. Isaac is moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northeast at a similar forward speed is expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected during the next several days. Isaac is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will affect the Azores over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics