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Tropical Depression NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 15
2013-10-10 10:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 100832 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013 A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND NARDA CONTINUES TO CLING TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR SHOULD RESULT IN NARDA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS. THE CYCLONE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...BUT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 240/02...AND A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION AS NARDA IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 16.4N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 16.1N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/0600Z 15.6N 130.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1800Z 15.0N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0600Z 14.5N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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