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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-10-01 22:33:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 012033 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014 The area of low pressure south of Manzanillo has become better defined today and has enough organized deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone. The cloud pattern consists of a small area of central convection west of the partially exposed low-level center and a curved band wrapping around the north and west side of the circulation. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on the latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB. The structure of the cyclone is consistent with moderate easterly shear as shown by the SHIPS model. This shear is forecast to diminish in the next 12 to 24 hours, which should allow for some intensification while the cyclone is moving over warm SSTs for the next couple of days. Later in the period, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler SSTs west of the Baja California peninsula and encounter a somewhat drier airmass, which should lead to gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the HWRF and the SHIPS model through 48 hours and is near the SHIPS forecast after that time. The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 290/07, since the center has only recently been apparent in visible imagery. In the short range, most of the track model guidance, with the exception of the GFDL and the GFDL ensemble mean, shows the cyclone moving generally west-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Model spread increases markedly beyond 36 hours. The GFS and ECMWF are well to the left showing a more westward motion, while the aforementioned GFDL and its ensemble mean show a northwestward and then northward motion well to the right of the rest of the guidance. The HWRF and UKMET models are in between these solutions, showing a northward turn around day 3. The NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the TVCE multi-model consensus out of respect for the GFS and ECMWF solutions, but remains well to the right of the consensus of those models at days 3 through 5. Given the large spread in the guidance, confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the period, including any potential threat to the Baja California peninsula, is lower than usual. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 17.3N 104.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 17.8N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 18.5N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 19.2N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 19.7N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 21.0N 114.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 22.5N 115.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 23.5N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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