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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-10-02 04:32:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020232 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014 The cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized with some developing convective bands. The center, however, is still exposed due to shear and is located on the northeastern edge of the thunderstorm activity. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on T2.0 Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB and the University of Wisconsin CIMMS. Global models and SHIPS guidance indicate that the shear will likely diminish, and since the cyclone is heading toward a pool of warm waters, some strengthening is forecast during the next 3 days. After that time, the cyclone should begin to interact with cooler waters and a more stable environment, resulting in gradual weakening. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 knots. A nearly permanent mid-level high pressure system over northern Mexico has been controlling the tracks of many of the cyclones in this region, and this is same story all over again. The NHC forecast calls for a west-northwest to northwest track during the next 3 days with a slow turn to the north thereafter. By then, the steering currents will probably collapse and the cyclone will meander while it weakens. The NHC forecast is just a little bit to the south of the previous one following the trend of the multi-model consensus TVCN, and considering that the ECMWF and the latest GFS models are farther south than the consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 17.8N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 18.2N 106.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 18.7N 108.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 19.1N 109.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 19.6N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 21.0N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 24.0N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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