je.st
news
Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-09-26 23:38:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 262138 CCA TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016 200 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2016 CORRECTED NINETEEN TO NINETEEN-E The depression's cloud pattern is a little less organized than it was earlier today. Visible satellite imagery shows the low-level center near the western edge of a small mass of deep convection whose convective tops have warmed, presumably due to some northwesterly shear. Dvorak satellite classifications are T2.0 and T2.5 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. The initial intensity estimate is held at 30 kt, on the lower end of these values. The large-scale factors influencing the intensity of the depression over the next few days are less conducive than previously assessed. Even though the cyclone will be moving over waters around 28 deg C and will encounter an increasingly diffluent flow aloft, some west- northwesterly shear is forecast to persist. A marginally moist environment surrounding the tropical cyclone is also forecast to dry further. The NHC intensity forecast is reduced some over the previous one in line with the current guidance and much below the dynamical guidance. Once the cyclone gains enough latitude in 3 to 4 days, westerly shear of 30 to 40 kt is expected to reduce the system to a remnant low. The cyclone's heading has been more westerly than previously estimated, and a longer-term average of satellite fixes yields an initial motion estimate of 285/05. Global models show the cyclone turning abruptly northward within the next 24 hours and then north- northeastward as it rotates around a mid-tropospheric cyclone slowly retrograding near 18N 140W. When the cyclone decouples in 3 to 4 days, a turn toward the west is likely as the remnant low is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The new track forecast is shifted toward the left of the previous track because of the more westerly initial motion and lies well west of the multi-model consensus, closest to the leftmost ECMWF model. The next advisory will be issued issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 11.6N 140.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 12.3N 140.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 13.0N 140.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 13.9N 139.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 15.0N 139.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 16.3N 139.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 17.1N 141.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z 17.2N 144.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||