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Tropical Depression Narda Public Advisory Number 7
2019-09-30 04:31:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 300231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Narda Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 ...NARDA EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO...BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...AND THE ISLAS MARIAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 105.2W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Pacific coast of Mexico from San Blas to Topolobampo, and also for the Islas Marias archipelago. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Topolobampo northward to Guaymas, Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Topolobampo * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Topolobampo to Guaymas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours for the Islas Marias, and within 24 to 36 hours elsewhere in the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 105.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will emerge over the Pacific early Monday and move near or across the Islas Marias archipelago. Narda is then forecast to move over the Gulf of California near or just offshore the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast once the center moves back over the Pacific Ocean, and Narda is expected to become a tropical storm again Monday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Guerrero to Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday night. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from Oaxaca to Nayarit. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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