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Tropical Depression RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 25
2014-09-30 16:51:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 301451 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014 Satellite imagery indicates that deep convection associated with Rachel dissipated almost 12 hours ago, with the cyclone now consisting of a tight swirl of low- to middle-level clouds. Dvorak intensity estimates continue to decrease, and the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt in agreement with the latest satellite classifications. A continuation of southwesterly shear of around 30 kt and very unfavorable thermodynamic factors suggest that deep convection is unlikely to redevelop, and Rachel should weaken into a remnant low later today. Global model guidance shows the remnant low degenerating into an open trough in about 2 days and dissipating shortly thereafter. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous forecast and the multi-model consensus. Rachel has been nearly stationary for the last 6-12 hours, trapped in an environment of weak steering. The shallow cyclone should drift west-southwestward and westward during the next couple of days around the eastern side of a weak low-level ridge until dissipation. The track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, nearly between the ECMWF and GFS model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 23.1N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 23.0N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1200Z 22.9N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0000Z 22.7N 118.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1200Z 22.5N 119.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain/Ramos
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