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Tropical Depression ROSLYN Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-09-29 04:57:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290256 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182016 800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016 A small area of deep convection continues to fire to the north of the center of the cyclone, with little change in Roslyn during the past several hours. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt in accordance with the past ASCAT data. The cyclone should move over progressively cooler water in a strongly sheared and dry environment. Thus, weakening should occur, and the new forecast is an update of the previous one, showing Roslyn decaying to a remnant low in 12 hours. The depression continues moving northward, now at 6 kt. Roslyn should turn northwestward and then westward before dissipation in about 2 days while the shallow cyclone becomes increasingly steered by a low-level ridge to the north. The new track forecast is a little slower than and south of the previous one since the latest guidance has trended in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 22.1N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 22.8N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/0000Z 23.2N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1200Z 23.2N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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