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Tropical Depression SIX-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2015-07-12 18:01:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 121601 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 900 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015 Convection associated with the area of low pressure located well southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has become better organized since yesterday, with a band now wrapping around the western semicircle of the system. Overnight scatterometer data and early morning visible satellite pictures indicate that the circulation has become sufficiently well defined, therefore advisories are being initiated on the sixth tropical depression of the 2015 eastern Pacific hurricane season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with a TAFB Dvorak classification of 2.0. The depression is forecast to remain over warm water and in a low shear environment during the next few days, however, drier and more stable air to the northwest of the cyclone may prevent significant intensification. The NHC intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening during the next few days, and is in best agreement with the SHIPS guidance. The cyclone is expected to move over cooler waters which should induce some weakening at days 4 and 5. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/6. The depression is forecast to turn west-northwestward as a ridge builds to its north during the next day or two. After that time, the cyclone should maintain a general westward to west-northwestward track. Later in the period, global models suggest that the steering flow should weaken around the depression as Dolores' circulation approaches from the west. This pattern should cause the depression's forward speed to decrease. Although the track guidance is in general agreement with this scenario, there is some spread in how much latitude the depression will gain during the next couple of days. The NHC track is closest to the GFS ensemble mean, which is a little south of the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1600Z 13.6N 125.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 14.5N 126.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 15.6N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 16.3N 128.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 16.8N 130.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 17.5N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 17.8N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 18.2N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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