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Tropical Depression SIX-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-07-13 04:36:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 130236 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062015 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015 The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the last several hours. Deep convection remains mainly confined to a curved band to the south of the center and in an area over the northeastern quadrant. Although the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support raising the intensity to minimal tropical storm strength, 35 kt, I am maintaining the wind speed at 30 kt based on the steady state nature of the system since the ASCAT pass earlier today. The depression has wobbled northward over the past few hours, but a longer term motion is west-northwestward at 5 kt. A slightly faster west-northwestward to northwestward motion is predicted during the next 3 to 4 days while the cyclone is steered by a narrow mid-level ridge. Beyond that time, the system is expected to slow down when the steering currents collapse due to the approach of Dolores to its east. The NHC track forecast has been nudged to the north of the previous one, primarily to account for the more northward initial position. The cyclone has an opportunity to strengthen during the next couple of days while it remains in low wind shear conditions and over relatively warm water. There does appear to be a fair amount of stable air to the north of the system, however, and that could limit the amount of intensification that occurs. Beyond 48 hours, the cyclone is expected to move over cooler water and into a drier air mass. These conditions should provoke weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and is in best agreement with the SHIPS model. It is worth noting that none of the intensity guidance shows much strengthening of the system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 14.0N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 15.0N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 15.7N 128.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 16.4N 129.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 16.9N 131.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 17.7N 134.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 18.5N 136.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 18.6N 137.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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