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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-09-11 04:34:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT SAT SEP 10 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110234 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016 900 PM MDT SAT SEP 10 2016 The area of low pressure southwest of Mexico has become better organized during the last several hours. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the low had a well-defined center, and the latest infrared images show enough organized deep convection in a band in the northwestern quadrant declare this system a tropical depression. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt in accordance with the TAFB satellite estimate. This is the earliest 16th tropical cyclone formation in the eastern Pacific since 1992. The depression is forecast to be in an environment of light shear, warm waters and a humid mid-level atmosphere for at least a few days. There are no obvious reasons why this cyclone would not intensify, other than a somewhat broad initial wind structure, and guidance is in fairly good agreement on at least gradual strengthening for the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is near or slightly above the intensity guidance after 24 hours, and this forecast could turn out to be conservative, especially in a few days, if the system develops an inner core. The long range intensity is leveled off due to the uncertainty of what latitude the cyclone will be located at after day 3, which is pretty critical in that portion of the eastern Pacific due to the tight SST gradient. An uncertain estimate of initial motion is 310/10. The depression is likely to move generally northwestward for the next couple of days around a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. A weakness in the ridge near 120-125 degrees west should cause the cyclone to turn north-northwestward and decelerate as it enters weaker steering currents near the ridge axis. The weakness is forecast to fill in by all the models on days 4 and 5, and this restrengthened ridge would steer the cyclone generally westward at a faster forward speed near the end of the forecast period. Overall, the models agree on the synoptic scenario, albeit with some timing disagreements. The NHC forecast track is close to the model consensus, which has been an excellent guidance tool to smooth through the along and cross track model differences so far in the 2016 eastern Pacific season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 13.9N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 14.9N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 16.0N 118.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 16.9N 119.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 17.7N 120.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 18.9N 120.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 19.1N 122.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 19.0N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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