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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-09-14 10:49:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140849 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014 A 0246 UTC GMI overpass shows that the circulation of Sixteen-E may finally be losing definition. However, a burst of deep convection has persisted on the western side of the circulation since that time and Dvorak estimates have actually increased to 30-35 kt. Since the overall shear cloud pattern has not changed substantially since the previous advisory, the intensity has been held at 30 kt for now. Although regular convective bursts have helped to maintain a circulation, this is not expected to continue for long. The dynamical guidance continues to show that the depression will quickly open up into a surface trough as a result of strong vertical wind shear associated with the low-level inflow and upper-level outflow of Hurricane Odile. It is worth noting that 24 hours ago, many of those same models had forecast that Sixteen would have already opened into a remnant trough by now. Given the hostile environment, the NHC forecast still shows weakening into a remnant low within 24 hours and complete dissipation by 36 hours. The depression is accelerating around the circulation of Hurricane Odile and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 080/10. There is decent agreement among the models that the depression, or its remnants, will continue to rotate around Hurricane Odile during the next day or so. The official forecast is very close to the consensus of the ECMWF and GFS models for the 24 hours before dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 14.9N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 15.5N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 17.1N 111.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Brown
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