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Tropical Depression Sara Forecast Discussion Number 18
2024-11-18 03:33:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 180233 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Sara Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Satellite data and radar images from Sabancuy, Mexico, show a small area of convection persists near and to the west of the estimated low-level center of Sara tonight. Surface observations are sparse in the region, but the circulation is likely still closed given the satellite presentation of the system. Based on available surface wind data, the initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt. Sara is still moving west-northwestward (300/11 kt) and should maintain this heading overnight. Convection associated with Sara is expected to collapse overnight with continued land interaction. Sara should degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low soon and open into a trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. While strong upper-level winds over the western Gulf are expected to inhibit tropical development, the remnant vorticity and moisture could interact with an approaching frontal system and contribute to heavy rainfall along the northern Gulf coast early this week. For more information, see products issued by the Weather Prediction Center. In addition, the threat of heavy rainfall, life-threatening flash flooding, and mudslides continues for portions of Central America and southern Mexico. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, areas of heavy rainfall will continue to cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. The heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Sara is winding down across northern Honduras, however the risk of catastrophic flooding impacts will continue. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 18.1N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 19.3N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Depression Sara (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-18 03:32:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 9:00 PM CST Sun Nov 17 the center of Sara was located near 18.1, -90.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Sara Public Advisory Number 18
2024-11-18 03:32:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 180232 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sara Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 90.7W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sara was located inland near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 90.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion should continue overnight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move over the Yucatan Peninsula through Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Sara is forecast to become a remnant low or open into a trough of low pressure by Monday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Depression Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as 40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain with localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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