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Tropical Depression Seven Graphics
2024-09-11 16:58:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 14:58:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 14:58:33 GMT
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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-09-11 16:55:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 111455 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 11 2024 Tropical Depression Seven has formed in the eastern Atlantic today. This formation is based on scatterometer depicting a closed circulation center, and organized deep convection based on TAFB/SAB satellite classifications. Satellite imagery also indicates that the low-level circulation has consolidated beneath the mid-level center based upon visible imagery The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, based on the scatterometer data. The depression is estimated to be moving 285/16 kt. The system should move to the west or west-northwest over the next few days with the storm being steered by a subtropical ridge to the north of the Azores. Confidence in the depression's track gradually lessens beyond forecast hour 72 as the synoptic scale flow becomes more complex. The depression will probably gradually slow down between hours 72-120 as it becomes caught between a pair of upper level ridges; one north of the Azores and another north of the Lesser Antilles. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper trough in the North Atlantic will attempt to deepen far enough south to steer the depression northward. How much the upper trough digs southward will determine if and when the storm takes on a more northerly track, or if it remains at a lower latitude longer. The forecast was placed just south of consensus this forecast period. Wind shear is not expected to be a big hindrance in its development initially while SSTs along its forecast path will generally be around 27C. Thus gradually intensification is shown for the first couple of days. However, shear is forecast to increase thereafter along with more marginal dry air conditions. This forecast leans more heavily on the regional hurricane models which show more modest intensification than the statistical dynamical tools but could be conservative at the end depending on how much latitude the system gains. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 16.0N 28.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 16.6N 31.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 17.5N 34.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 18.6N 36.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 19.3N 39.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 19.9N 41.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 20.3N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 20.6N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 21.0N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Mullinax/Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Seven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2024-09-11 16:55:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 111455 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER MULLINAX/BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics