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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-09-13 16:55:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 131455 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather near the southwest coast of Mexico has developed a well-defined center surrounded by bands of deep convection. T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 2.0 on the Dvorak scale and on this basis, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Sixteen-E. A portion of the circulation is already interacting with land, and no significant strengthening is forecast before the center moves inland. Given that the there is a possibility of tropical storm force winds mainly in gusts, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for a portion of the coast. The depression is located at the bottom of a large mid-latitude trough, and this pattern will carry the depression slowly northeastward toward the coast of Mexico, and then farther inland where the cyclone is expected to become a remnant low. Very heavy rains are the main threat from this tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 16.2N 101.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 16.7N 101.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 17.0N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 17.0N 99.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 15/1200Z 17.0N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila
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