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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-09-13 17:03:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 131503 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS ENOUGH OF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THE DEPRESSION IS IN A RELATIVELY LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM WATERS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND...AND ITS INITIAL STRUCTURE WHICH IS NOT TOTALLY FREE OF THE ITCZ. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY-SHIPS MODEL. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/3. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST SOON DUE TO A DEEPENING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO. THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS JUST A BIT WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS WARNING MIGHT HAVE TO BE EXTENDED WESTWARD LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 15.7N 101.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 16.0N 101.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 16.8N 101.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 17.7N 101.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 18.7N 102.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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