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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-08-24 22:36:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 242035 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 300 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016 Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure located well southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, now has a well-defined center and enough convective organization to be considered a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak Data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB. The environment appears favorable for steady intensification during the first 3 days, as the cyclone is forecast to move over SSTs above 28C but the shear remains 10 kt or higher much of that time. Ocean temperatures cool a little at days 4 and 5 and the mid-level atmosphere dries out a bit, which could result in some slow weakening. The NHC forecast is close to the IVCN intensity consensus through the forecast period. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/12. The cyclone will be steered generally west-northwestward for the next 48 hours with a decrease in forward speed along the southwestern side of a weakening mid-level ridge. Later in the period, a westward acceleration is expected as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of the tropical cyclone. In general the track model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, although there is some cross-track spread, with the HWRF and ECMWF to the south and the COAMPS-TC and especially the GFDL farther north. The NHC forecast lies south of the TVCN multi-model consensus and in between the GFS and the latest GFS/ECMWF blend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 15.2N 109.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 15.9N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 16.5N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 17.1N 114.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 17.5N 115.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 18.0N 118.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 18.0N 123.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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