je.st
news
Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-06-23 16:49:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231448 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 800 AM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED ENOUGH OF A CENTER TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A SMALL AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION...WITH LARGE BANDING FEATURES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. OTHER THAN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS IMPEDIMENTS TO THIS DEPRESSION STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATER WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...A BIT HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH DURING THE PAST 12-24 HR WHILE IT HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL EXIT THE ITCZ BY TOMORROW AND BE STEERED BY A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THUS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR 4-5 DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME A SHALLOWER CYCLONE AND TAKE A WESTWARD TURN AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FOR A FIRST ADVISORY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 11.8N 103.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 12.2N 104.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 13.4N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 15.2N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 16.4N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 20.5N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||