je.st
news
Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-06-09 22:40:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 092040 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 200 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014 Deep convection associated with an area of low pressure to the southwest of Mexico has become much better organized during the past 12 hours, and 1554 UTC and 1640 UTC ASCAT-B and ASCAT-A overpasses, respectively, indicated that the system had uncontaminated surface winds of 30-32 kt in the northeast quadrant. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on the third tropical depression of the eastern North Pacific season. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the ASCAT data and satellite estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt from SAB. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/04 kt, based primarily on microwave satellite data and ASCAT wind data. The cyclone is expected to remain south of a deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico to Baja California and into the eastern Pacific. The global and regional models are in excellent agreement on a westward to west-northwestward motion throughout the forecast period, and the official forecast track is similar to but slightly faster the consensus model TVCE. Although the cloud structure of the depression has improved markedly in visible imagery since this morning, several microwave images indicate that the low-level and mid-level circulations are not yet juxtaposed. Furthermore, ASCAT wind data suggest that the low-level circulation is slightly elongated east-west, and a pronounced dry slot coming off of the mountains of Mexico is also evident in visible and microwave satellite data in the western semicircle. As a result, only gradual rather than rapid strengthening is forecast for the next 24-48 hours while the cyclone remains over warm water and in a low environmental wind shear. By 96 hours, cooler SSTs less than 26C, increasing southwesterly shear, and drier mid-level air are expected to produce steady weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the intensity consensus model ICON. Given the forecast track and size of the tropical cyclone, the Government of Mexico does not anticipate the need for any watches or warnings along the coast of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 15.4N 102.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 15.5N 102.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 15.6N 103.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 15.7N 105.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 15.9N 106.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 16.6N 109.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 17.6N 112.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 18.7N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||