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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-06-23 22:31:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 232031 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013 THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN SOME SMALL CHANGES WITH THE DEPRESSION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT WHILE SOME OF THE OUTER BANDING HAS DIMINISHED...THE EARLIER CENTRAL CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MORPHING INTO A CURVED BAND JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER. ASCAT DATA SUGGESTS THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25-30 KT... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. ALMOST ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES OVER VERY WARM WATER WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE LARGEST NEGATIVE FACTOR IS PROBABLY THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH COULD KEEP IT FROM RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NEAR THE SHIPS MODEL...AND A BIT HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER IN 3-4 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY ABOUT 120 H. THE ASCAT DATA HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...JUST A BIT TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEPRESSION ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS A RATHER NARROW SPREAD...AND OTHER THAN A SLIGHT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT FOR THE FIRST 24 H...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 12.0N 103.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 12.7N 104.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 14.3N 105.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 15.7N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 16.6N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 18.1N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 20.0N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 20.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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