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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-06-11 04:44:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 110244 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 The convective pattern associated with Tropical Depression Three-E is gradually becoming better organized. However, recent microwave imagery and data from the Rapidscat scatterometer on the International Space Station suggest that the low-level circulation is somewhat disorganized, being elongated from west-northwest to east-southeast and possibly having multiple vorticity centers. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 and 30 kt respectively. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on these estimates and a lack of reliable tropical-storm wind reports from the scatterometer. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/9. The depression is currently being steered by a mid-level ridge over Mexico. This feature is forecast to weaken during the next 72 hours as a large mid to upper-level trough forms over the Gulf of Mexico. This should cause the cyclone to turn toward the north and north- northeast. While the track guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there are some important differences in the models. The Canadian, NAVGEM, and UKMET models show a fast enough forward motion that the cyclone makes landfall in southern Mexico. The latest GFS run also takes the system close to the coast, but keeps it offshore at 72 hours. The ECMWF keeps the system farther offshore during this time. After 72 hours, the ridge over Mexico is forecast to build, which should cause the tropical cyclone to turn west- northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico if it is still offshore. The new forecast track is west of the previous track based on the initial position and motion, and as a result it is farther from the coast of Mexico. However, there is low confidence in how close the center will actually get to the coast. The cyclone is expected to be in an environment of warm sea surface temperatures and light vertical wind shear during the next 48 hours, which favors steady intensification. The intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to become a tropical storm in 12 hours or less and a hurricane in about 48 hours. After that, a combination of northerly shear and possible land interaction suggests that a slower rate of intensification is likely. The new intensity forecast is similar to the intensity consensus during the first 48 hours and in best agreement with the LGEM model after that time. An alternative forecast scenario is that the cyclone makes landfall in southern Mexico, which would lead to rapid dissipation over the mountains of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 12.9N 99.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 13.2N 100.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 13.7N 100.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 14.2N 100.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 14.7N 99.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 15.5N 99.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 16.5N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 17.5N 104.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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