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Tropical Depression THREE-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-06-11 10:39:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 110839 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015 The depression does not appear to be strengthening yet. The cyclone has a broad circulation with some evidence of multiple centers. A pair of ASCAT passes at 0330 and 0415 UTC showed maximum winds in the 25-30 kt range. Given that the convective pattern has not changed much since the time of the ASCAT data, the initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt. This intensity estimate is a little lower than the Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT which are all T2.5/35 kt. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 305/7. The system is expected to slow down and turn northward later today or tonight when a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico cuts off and drifts westward. The low aloft is expected to weaken this weekend, which should allow ridging to become better established to the north of the tropical cyclone. This pattern change should cause the system to turn west-northwestward and increase in forward speed in a few days. Although a fair amount of spread still exists in the model solutions, they have come into better agreement compared to previous cycles. In fact, most of the guidance has shifted south and west away from the coast of southern Mexico, and the official track forecast follows that trend. The depression is expected to remain over warm water and in a moist airmass for the next several days. These conditions support steady intensification. A slightly inhibiting factor is vertical wind shear, which is forecast by the SHIPS model to be around 15 kt for the next few days. The official intensity forecast is just an update of the previous one and shows gradual intensification through the period. This forecast lies at the high end of the guidance, in best agreement with the SHIPS model. It should be noted that the future intensity of the system is dependent on how much it interacts with land, so if the system gets closer to the coast than predicted, the longer range part of the forecast could be too high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 13.1N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 13.5N 100.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 14.1N 100.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 14.4N 100.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 14.7N 100.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 15.5N 100.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 16.5N 103.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 17.5N 105.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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