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Tropical Depression TWENTY-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2014-10-17 22:52:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 172052 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014 The tropical disturbance south of Mexico has developed deep convection organized in rainbands today. Correspondingly, the subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB have come in at 1.5 and 2.0, respectively. Additionally, ship and ASCAT scatterometer observations suggest that a well-defined closed circulation has formed. Thus the system is being started as a tropical cyclone in this advisory. The two ASCAT passes this afternoon suggest peak winds of 30-35 kt, though these are along the edge of the swath and may not be reliable. Finally, a couple of ships at 18Z indicated winds of 30-35 kt. This relative bounty of observations indicates an intensity of 30 kt, though this may be somewhat conservative. The tropical depression appears to be in an environment conducive for further intensification in the short term, as water temperatures are near 30C, vertical shear is very weak, and the atmosphere is quite moist in the low levels and supportive of deep convection. Intensification is shown, quite similar to a blend of the SHIPS statistical model and the GFDL and HWRF dynamical models. A 48 hr point is shown for continuity, but the system is unlikely to exist that long as a tropical cyclone over the high terrain of Mexico. An alternative scenario - supported by the ECMWF and GFDL models - is that the cyclone reaches the coast, but does not press inland, meandering just offshore as a tropical cyclone for a longer time than indicated here. The location and motion of the cyclone's center have substantial uncertainty, though it appears to be moving toward the north at about 7 kt. The tropical depression is being steered primarily due to the interaction of deep-layer southwesterlies equatorward of the cyclone with a weak ridge to its northeast. The system should slow its forward speed during the next couple days as the steering flow weakens. The NHC forecast track is based upon the TVCE multi-model ensemble. The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall that will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides in portions of southern Mexico during the next few days, especially near areas of elevated terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 15.4N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 16.1N 99.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 16.7N 99.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/0600Z 17.2N 99.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 19/1800Z 17.5N 99.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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