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Tropical Depression TWENTY-ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-10-30 15:46:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 301446 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 800 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014 The depression has become a little better organized with a more prominent central dense overcast feature forming overnight. However, recent microwave images show that the center remains on the southwestern edge of the deep convection, suggesting that southwesterly shear continues to affect the depression. Although the overall satellite presentation has improved, Dvorak intensity estimates are unchanged, so the initial wind speed will conservatively remain 30 kt. Although the depression is over warm water, southwesterly shear and dry air in the low- to mid-levels are expected to continue for the next day or two. As a result, the latest model guidance does not show a lot of strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues the trend of showing only slow intensification. After that time, the global models forecast a reduction in the shear, along with an increase in moisture. These conditions should promote more significant strengthening at longer ranges. The NHC forecast is closest to the SHIPS models at days 3-4, and remains above the model consensus after considering the favorable large-scale environment. Increasing south-southwesterly shear could halt any additional strengthening after that time. The center appears to have reformed a little northeast of the previous estimates closer to the stronger thunderstorm activity, leading to an uncertain initial motion estimate of west at 5 kt. The depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward and southwestward during the next 36 hours while a mid-level ridge builds to the north and northwest of the cyclone. The ridge is forecast to shift eastward during the next few days, which should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward in 48 to 72 hours. After that time, the tropical cyclone is forecast to turn northward while a mid-latitude trough approaches the Baja California peninsula. The official NHC forecast is a little faster than the consensus after accounting for the unrealistically slow HWRF solution, and is very close to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 11.5N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 11.4N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 10.7N 102.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 10.4N 103.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 10.4N 105.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 11.9N 108.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 20.0N 108.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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