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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-09-05 22:38:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 052038 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017 The small area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better organized during the past several hours, with deep convection forming over the center. ASCAT data showed a well-defined circulation with winds of about 30 kt. Thus, a tropical depression has formed, with maximum winds estimated at 30 kt. While the cyclone is currently experiencing westerly shear, most of the guidance indicate the shear should gradually lessen. Combined with the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters, this should promote strengthening. The shear could increase again in a few days, so the intensity forecast will be leveled off at that time. The NHC wind speed prediction is near or slightly higher than the model consensus, but could be conservative. The depression has been drifting eastward during the day. For the next couple of days, the cyclone isn't expected to move much as it is caught in an area of light winds in the mid-levels. By Friday, a ridge should build over Texas and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, which is likely to steer the system southwestward at a faster pace. The NHC forecast is on the southern side of the guidance, since models in that area tend to have a northward bias, between the corrected consensus and the ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 22.4N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 22.4N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 22.2N 95.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 21.8N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 21.4N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 20.9N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 19.7N 97.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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