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Tropical Depression VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 26
2014-11-05 15:36:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST WED NOV 05 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 051436 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 700 AM PST WED NOV 05 2014 Vance is currently making landfall along the coast of Mexico to the southeast of Mazatlan as a tropical depression with maximum winds estimated to be 25 kt. The cyclone barely meets the qualifications for a tropical cyclone since the low-level center is becoming elongated. Vance is producing a small area of deep convection to the north of the center over western Mexico, and the larger swath of moisture seen in satellite images to its southeast is not directly associated with this system. The weakening cyclone continues to turn to the right, and the latest initial motion estimate is 055/11. Although a 12-hour forecast position is shown, it would not be surprising if Vance dissipates over western Mexico before then. Even though the tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate soon, moisture from the remnants of Vance and the area to its southeast should continue to spread northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United States. This is producing heavy rains over portions of these areas, which should continue for another day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 22.7N 105.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 23.0N 105.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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