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Tropical Storm ANDRES Forecast Discussion Number 29
2015-06-04 10:43:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU JUN 04 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 040843 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 AM PDT THU JUN 04 2015 The cloud pattern of Andres is deteriorating quickly this morning with the center of circulation becoming exposed well to the west of the dissipating deep convection. The ambiguity solution of an earlier 0222 UTC ISS-RapidScat pass showed a few believable 45 kt winds to the northeast of the surface center. Since that time, however, the deep convection in that particular area has decreased in coverage and the cloud tops have warmed considerably. Therefore, the initial intensity is decreased to 40 kt for this advisory, and also agrees with a blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Since Andres is forecast to remain over sub-24 degrees Celsius waters and within a harsh vertical shear environment, the cyclone is expected to weaken and become a remnant low in 24 hours or less. The NHC intensity forecast, which is similar to the IVCN consensus, calls for Andres to further weaken and become a post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours, followed by dissipation in 4 days. Andres has barely moved during the past 6 hours, and appears to be drifting northeastward with an initial motion of 045/2 kt. The cyclone is forecast to turn gradually eastward later today and then east-southeastward tonight within a weak low to mid-level steering current. For the remaining portion of the forecast, the low is expected to gradually accelerate and move toward the southeast within the peripheral flow of Hurricane Blanca situated several hundred miles to its east. The initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent ISS-RapidScat overpass, which showed a slightly larger extent of tropical-storm-force winds over the northeast quadrant, and a smaller area over the southern semi-circle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 20.2N 124.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 20.2N 124.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 19.9N 124.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1800Z 19.5N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z 19.0N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 18.0N 122.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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