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Tropical Storm Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2024-06-29 04:41:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 290240 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0300 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) PT GALLINAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) CURACAO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) CURACAO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 15(34) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 13(45) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 5(29) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 1(25) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) X(19) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) 1(16) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) X(23) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 11(44) X(44) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 2(38) X(38) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 1(30) X(30) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 60(62) 1(63) 1(64) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) X(33) X(33) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 67(69) 2(71) X(71) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 1(41) X(41) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 60(68) X(68) X(68) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) X(36) X(36) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 50(51) 2(53) X(53) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 1(27) X(27) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 1(36) X(36) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) PORT OF SPAIN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 5(19) X(19) JUANGRIEGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) JUANGRIEGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 2
2024-06-29 04:40:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 290240 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0300 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 43.6W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 43.6W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 42.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 9.7N 46.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 10.4N 49.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 11.0N 53.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 11.7N 56.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.5N 60.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.6N 63.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 16.0N 71.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 17.8N 77.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.3N 43.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-06-29 01:34:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 282333 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Two, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Northwestern Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94): A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea continues to produce widespread but disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of this low is not anticipated before it moves inland over the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. The system is then forecast to move west-northwestward, emerging over the Bay of Campeche Saturday night or early Sunday, where conditions appear generally conducive for further development. A tropical depression could form before the system moves inland again early next week over Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics