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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-06-13 04:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130235 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 Carlos has changed little in organization since the last advisory. The deep convection in satellite imagery is asymmetric, with the coldest cloud tops currently east of the center. In addition, data from the Mexican radar at Acapulco shows that the eyewall is having trouble becoming a closed ring around the 15-20 n mi wide eye. These conditions are likely due to continued moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear and perhaps some dry air entrainment. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 55 kt and 45 kt respectively, so the initial intensity remains 50 kt. The center of Carlos has made an eastward turn during the past several hours, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 045/2. Water vapor imagery shows a large mid to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico, and this may be the cause of the current motion. The large-scale models forecast a ridge to build over Mexico over the weekend, which should then cause Carlos to move west-northwestward nearly parallel to the coast of Mexico. Early next week, a mid to upper-level trough over the southwestern United States is forecast to move into northwestern Mexico, which could cause Carlos to turn northwestward toward the Gulf of California or the Baja California Peninsula by Tuesday. The new forecast track is similar to but adjusted somewhat north of the previous one, and it brings the center of Carlos a little closer to the coast of mainland Mexico. It should be noted that any motion to the right of the forecast track could bring the center onshore in mainland Mexico as forecast by the latest GFS run. The large-scale models suggest the current shear should abate after 12-24 hours, which in theory should allow Carlos to strengthen. However, most of the intensity guidance forecasts only slow strengthening during the next 72 hours, which may be due to a combination of drier air aloft and possible land interaction. After 72 hours, cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere are expected to cause Carlos to weaken. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and it remains at the upper end of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 14.8N 100.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 15.0N 100.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 15.4N 100.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 15.8N 101.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 16.3N 102.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 17.5N 104.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 19.5N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 22.0N 107.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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