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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 18
2015-06-15 04:31:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150231 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 The satellite presentation has not changed significantly during the past few hours. The convection surrounding the intermittent eye feature has been fluctuating in intensity and is located mostly to the east of the center. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are lower that earlier, but still suggest an initial intensity of 60 kt. The intensity forecast is uncertain. Most of the global guidance, especially the GFS, basically dissipate the cyclone in the short term, and none of the other models suggest any significant strengthening. Given that Carlos will be moving into a low shear environment and over warm waters for the next day or so, the NHC forecast calls for a very slight strengthening, if at all. Beyond 3 days, the interaction of the circulation with the high terrain of Mexico should result in weakening. The weakening could occur much faster, if an earlier turn to the north-northwest toward land materializes, as indicated by the GFS. The steering currents remain weak and Carlos is moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 5 kt. A weakness north of the cyclone should encourage a gradual north-northwesterly turn, and this is the solution of the ECMWF and the GFS. The NHC forecast is a little bit to the left of these two models and the previous official forecast, and is very close to the multi-model consensus. It is difficult to forecast if the cyclone will even exist beyond 3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 16.7N 101.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 17.1N 102.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 17.4N 103.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 18.0N 104.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 18.7N 104.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 20.5N 105.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0000Z 22.0N 106.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z 24.0N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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