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Tropical Storm CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-06-12 10:53:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 120852 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015 Carlos has changed little in strength during the last several hours. Infrared images and a recent GPM microwave image indicate that the center is embedded within the deep convection. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT were unchanged from earlier, and support an intensity of 50 kt. Northeasterly shear of about 15 kt is expected to persist for another day or two, so only gradual intensification is predicted. Some weakening is forecast by the end of the period when Carlos is expected to approach a drier airmass and cooler sea surface temperatures. Little change was made to the previous intensity forecast, and it lies near the high end of the model guidance. The tropical storm is currently embedded in very weak steering currents and has generally been drifting northwestward during the past 6 hours or so. The steering currents are expected to remain weak for another day or so, therefore, Carlos will likely continue to meander during that time. Beyond 48 hours, mid-level ridging is expected to build to the north of the storm resulting in a west-northwestward to northwestward motion at a faster forward speed. This forecast will keep the core of Carlos on a track parallel to the coast of Mexico. The model guidance has changed little this cycle. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and is also close to the model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 14.7N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 14.9N 100.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 15.1N 101.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 15.3N 101.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 15.6N 101.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 16.6N 103.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 18.2N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 20.4N 107.8W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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