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Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-07-01 10:55:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 010855 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032024 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Around 0450 UTC, Chris is estimated to have made landfall near Lechuguillas in the Mexican state of Veracruz. Since then, satellite infrared imagery showed an increase in the thunderstorm activity in the eastern portion of the circulation, near the region of the radius of maximum wind which is still over the Bay of Campeche. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. Chris should weaken quickly throughout the day as the system moves just north of west at an estimated 280/10 kt inland over eastern Mexico. Simulated satellite data from global models suggest Chris will dissipate over the higher terrain later today and the official forecast now shows dissipation occuring by 12 h, if not sooner. Key messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will result in areas of flooding across portions of eastern Mexico this morning, with mudslides possible in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected for the next few hours in the tropical storm warnings area in Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 20.1N 97.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
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Tropical Storm Chris Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2024-07-01 10:55:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 01 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 010855 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032024 0900 UTC MON JUL 01 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Advisory Number 3
2024-07-01 10:54:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 01 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 010854 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032024 0900 UTC MON JUL 01 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 97.2W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 97.2W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 96.7W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 97.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
Category: Transportation and Logistics