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Tropical Storm Chris Graphics
2024-07-01 05:01:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Jul 2024 03:01:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Jul 2024 03:29:05 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 10
2024-07-01 05:00:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 010259 CCA TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 10...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024 Corrected location of Beryl in the final paragraph. There are a few pieces of evidence that show that Beryl is in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The clear eye seen on infrared satellite earlier today has become a little more clouded over during the past few hours. In addition, data from the last leg through Beryl from both the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicated concentric eyewalls, which also matches current radar imagery we are receiving from Barbados Meteorological Service. An earlier SSMIS microwave pass at 2150 UTC also showed a formative outer moat forming outside the small inner eyewall. In response to the evolving structure, 700-mb flight-level winds from the NOAA and Air Force planes are a little lower than observed earlier today, and the latest round of Dvorak estimates also support a slightly lower intensity. However, the initial intensity will remain at 115 kt for this advisory, given a couple of dropsonde observations in the NE quadrant of Beryl's inner eyewall. Aircraft fixes indicate Beryl continues to move quickly westward at 280/17 kt. There isn't much change with the track forecast philosophy, as a extensive mid-level ridge poleward of Beryl should maintain its westward to west-northwest motion for the next few days as it move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea. The ridge does become positioned more northwest of Beryl towards the end of the forecast period, potentially allowing the hurricane to slow down gradually once it reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The track guidance this cycle is quite similar to the previous cycle, and thus the latest NHC track forecast is also quite similar to the prior advisory. Given the evolution to Beryl's inner core structure tonight due to the aforementioned ERC, it would not be surprising to see a short-term fluctuation down in Beryl's peak winds, though Beryl is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as it crosses through the Windward Islands tomorrow morning. In fact, there could also be a bit of restrengthening after the ERC completes in the eastern Caribbean, and that is reflected in the short-term forecast. After 48 hours, a subtle upper-level trough to Beryl's north could induce a bit more westerly vertical wind shear over the hurricane, and some gradual weakening continues to be shown after 48 hours. However, it should be emphasized that Beryl is forecast to remain a significant hurricane during its entire trek across the Caribbean region, though more prominent weakening is likely if Beryl crosses the Yucatan between days 4-5 as shown in the latest forecast. The NHC intensity forecast remains in good agreement with the consensus aids, and is only slightly adjusted from the prior advisory. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands tomorrow morning. This is a very dangerous situation and residents in these areas should listen to local government and emergency management officials for any preparedness and/or evacuation orders. These preparations should have been completed today as significant impacts will begin tomorrow morning. 2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life- threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected when Beryl passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada beginning early Monday morning. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for much of the Windward Islands. 3. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are expected across the Windward Islands through Monday. 4. Beryl is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it moves across the Caribbean Sea later this week. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for portions of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the remainder of the northwestern Caribbean should monitor its progress and additional Watches and Warnings will likely be required this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 11.5N 58.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 12.2N 60.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 13.4N 64.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 14.8N 68.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 15.9N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 16.7N 75.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 17.6N 79.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 19.0N 85.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 20.7N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Chris Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-07-01 04:58:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 010258 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032024 1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are now near 35 kt so the system is being named at this time. The tropical cyclone continues on a slightly north of due west heading with an initial motion estimate of 280/11 kt. A strong mid- level ridge associated with a high pressure system centered over the southern U.S. Plains should continue to steer the system mainly westward through tomorrow, i.e. until dissipation. The official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction and about in the middle of the objective guidance. Since the cyclone should make landfall within the next few hours, little additional strengthening is anticipated. Chris should weaken quickly after moving inland and dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico. The primary hazard associated with this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which will result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico tonight and into Monday. Key messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will result in areas of flooding across eastern Mexico into Monday, with mudslides possible in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected overnight in the tropical storm warnings area in Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 20.0N 96.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 20.3N 97.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics