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Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-07-12 16:53:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 121453 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 1000 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 There has been no appreciable change to the organization of Dolores' cloud pattern during the past several hours. Satellite data show the cyclone maintaining a large mass of cold-topped convection, primarily in a band over the northeastern semicircle of the circulation. Microwave data and visible satellite imagery suggest that the low-level center is located near a new convective burst, perhaps the beginning of a central dense overcast. Dvorak classifications were T2.5 and T3.0 from SAB and TAFB, respectively, at 1200 UTC. A blend of these satellite intensity estimates is used to keep the intensity at 40 kt. The initial motion is between west-northwest and northwest or 305/09. A mid-level anticyclone over the south-central United States should steer Dolores on a generally west-northwestward heading for the next 5 days, with some deceleration in forward speed by 48 hours. Global models are in excellent agreement on this scenario, and the spread of the model guidance is generally low through 72 hours, except for the GFDL model that takes Dolores toward the Baja California peninsula. After 72 hours, the model solutions diverge somewhat, with the GFS taking Dolores farther north due to a weaker subtropical ridge and the ECMWF showing the cyclone farther west due to a stronger ridge and a weaker trough off of the U.S. West coast. The NHC forecast track is along or just to the left of the previous forecast, closely following the multi-model consensus minus the GFDL solution. Dolores seems poised to strengthen. Atmospheric and oceanic thermodynamic variables are quite conducive for intensification through about 96 hours. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 70 percent chance of a 25-kt increase by this time tomorrow. However, the SHIPS model does indicate some light westerly or northwesterly shear in 24-48 hours, but it would appear that the shear is not enough to impede intensification. Beyond 96 hours, water temperatures are expected to be marginally warm and Dolores should have already begun to ingest somewhat drier and more stable air, which should promote weakening. The intensity at the end of the forecast period is very much dependent on how much latitude Dolores gains by that time. Like previous forecasts, the current one is near or above the multi-model consensus similar to SHIPS model guidance. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the southwestern coast of Mexico due to the cyclone's expected intensification and associated increase in the size of the wind field. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 15.4N 101.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 16.1N 103.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 16.8N 104.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 17.3N 106.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 17.8N 107.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 18.8N 109.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 19.7N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 20.3N 113.3W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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